Digital Snapshot

by Sophia Brook

Understanding the AUKUS Submarine Deal

#4/23

17 March 2023

In a joint statement this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak officially announced the pathway to achieving the first major initiative promised under the 2021 AUKUS deal, Australia acquiring conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs).

The overall goal is for Australia to end up with three US Virginia-class submarines (with the option to buy two additional ones) and eight of the entirely new SSN-AUKUS submarines, meaning a total of 11, potentially 13, submarines. With the whole process to be completed in the 2060s.

The SSN-AUKUS is a new type of nuclear submarine, based on a British design combined with either US technology or a US combat system.

The pathway to achieving this goal is comprised of four main steps:

From 2023, Australian military and civilian personnel will be embedded in the US and Royal Navies and submarine industrial bases. PM Albanese confirmed that this was already happening in order to build up Australia’s knowledge in this area and start training personnel. At the same time, the US would start increasing ‘SSN port visits to Australia […] with Australian sailors joining U.S. crews for training and development’. The UK also intends to increase visits, however, this will not happen before 2026.

From 2027, both the US and the UK will ‘begin forward rotations of SSNs to Australia to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system necessary to establish a sovereign SSN capability’.

From the early 2030s, Australia will be able to buy three US Virginia-class submarines to bridge its capability gap until the completion of the new SSN-AUKUS, with the option to buy two more submarines if required. This part of the plan still needs to be approved by the US Congress, which could pose a potential stumbling block depending on US politics at the time.

From the late 2030s, the UK intends to deliver the first SSN-AUKUS submarine to its own Royal Navy, while Australia plans to provide the first Australian-built SSN-AUKUS to its navy in the early 2040s. As expected, the Albanese government designated South Australia as its main future submarine industry hub.

According to this timeline, Australia should receive five of the eight SSN-AUKUS submarines by the mid-2050s and the remaining three in the 2060s, with ‘one submarine built every two years from the early 2040s’.

The Australian government expects that this plan will present ‘a whole of nation opportunity; for new jobs, new industries, and new expertise in science, technology, and cyber’, with ‘$6 billion invested in Australia’s industrial capability and workforce over the next four years, creating around 20,000 direct jobs over the next 30 years’. The gradual build-up hereby is designed to assist Australia to develop its industrial capacities over time, so that the SSNs will become a ‘sovereign’ Australian capacity. This aspect in particular raised concerns in the lead-up to the announcement, with experts worrying that Australia might become so dependent on US and UK expertise that it would lose its sovereignty in defence matters.

Despite these efforts to build up Australian know-how, experts are still worrying that, with Australian ports becoming frequent hubs for US submarines, Australia might be forced or at least expected to stand ready to support any US initiative in the region should it come to a conflict with China over Taiwan in the future.

In addition to this, several other concerns have been raised by experts post reveal. Firstly, according to government estimates, the ‘cost of acquiring, building and sustaining the submarines is expected to be between $268 billion and $368 billion by 2055’. In comparison, Australia originally estimated it would cost $225 billion to build and sustain the 12 French submarines. With a price tag like this, the AUKUS pact could potentially become a burden to future governments, even though both sides of politics currently pledge support for the plans.

Secondly, defence experts have warned that Australia and the UK might have difficulties recruiting and training enough skilled workers to build the SSNs, with some speculating that the UK and Australia might need to ‘alternate parts of the production process, so that the relevant workers could rotate between the Cumbrian and South Australian shipyards’.

Thirdly, the successful outcome of the initiative is now dependent on ‘the whims of three governments’, with the main question being whether AUKUS will survive a US government change or, in the worst case, another Trump-esque presidency.

Fourthly, with a rise in detection technology, some experts raised the concern that by the time the submarines are built, their stealth-capacity will have become obsolete.

Lastly, Australia will have to carefully manage the concerns regarding its adherence to the NPT voiced by some of its closest neighbouring states, most notably Indonesia. The Indonesian Foreign Minister stating that ‘maintaining peace and stability in the region is the responsibility of all countries. […] Indonesia expects Australia to remain consistent in fulfilling its obligations under the NPT and IAEA safeguards, as well as to develop with the IAEA a verification mechanism that is effective, transparent and non-discriminatory’. According to some media reports, a senior Indonesian official further stated that ‘the country’s sea lanes should not be used by Australian nuclear-propelled submarines because “AUKUS was created for fighting”’. Needless to say that Chinese officials have already reiterated their criticism of the deal, but, so far, they have not received the support they might have expected.

Regardless of the aforementioned concerns and criticisms, acquiring US Virginia-class submarines and the SSN capability, once established, will be valuable assets in Australia’s defence arsenal. Not only will Australia gain access to advanced US and UK technical know-how, it will also ‘open up opportunities for advanced undersea operations’.

The AUKUS deal also offers a positive outlook for the region. Some experts have noted that the announced plans could indeed ‘foster an Indo-Pacific that is “open, stable, prosperous and respectful of sovereignty, human rights and international law”’, as the timeline lays the ‘foundations for a partnership that will last at least 50 years’, not only binding the US, UK and Australia together but also ‘binding them to the Indo-Pacific’.

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AUKUS Remarks | Prime Minister of Australia

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