Development Policy Archives • Periscope

The Influence of Geo-Strategic Rivalry on the Solomon Islands April 2024 election

swell_admin — Tue, 10 Sep 2024 06:35:49 +0000

The Solomon Islands 17 April election was the 12th since independence in 1978. This was the first ever election in which the entire outgoing cabinet contested unified as a single party: the Ownership, Unity and Responsibility (OUR) Party, led by four-time Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare.

The outcome was not as expected either by the outgoing government itself, or by diplomats and media commentators in Australia and New Zealand. Sogavare, and the OUR Party, failed to secure a legislative majority, although the setback was not so large as to prevent that party reconfiguring itself under new leadership and reassuming office. More than half of the outgoing ministers and other OUR incumbents lost their seats and none of that party’s newer candidates were successful. Nevertheless, OUR remained the largest party, with 15 seats, while former opposition leader Matthew Wale’s Solomon Islands Democratic Party (SIDP) obtained only eleven MPs and Peter Kenilorea’s United Party secured six (see Table 1). Ahead of the post-election contest for the prime ministerial portfolio, Sogavare stepped aside as the OUR Party candidate. Buoyed by the support of independents and smaller parties, the previous foreign minister Jeremiah Manele became Prime Minister with 31 votes as compared to Matthew Wale’s 18 (one MP was absent).

Table 1: Results of the Solomon Islands 2024 Election

Ownership, Unity & Responsibility Party	15
Solomon Islands Democratic Party	11
United Party	6
People First Party	3
Solomon Islands Party for Rural Advancement	1
Iumi for Change	1
Kadere	1
Democratic Alliance Party	1
Independents	11
Total	50

Source: https://solomonelections.net/results.

The Solomon Islands comprises a double-chain of forest-covered high volcanic islands, fringed by outlying smaller atolls and raised coral islands. It is located to the east of Papua New Guinea and to the north of Australia. The country has a population of 761,000, of whom around 13% inhabit the capital, Honiara, located on the island of Guadalcanal. The Pacific Island State was a British protectorate from 1893 until 1978 and became a major theatre of conflict during the Pacific War. Since independence, the Solomon Islands has relied on a first-past-the-post electoral system which is presently used in 50 single-member districts. A Governor-General is the representative of the Head of State (the British Queen), and the country remains a member of the Commonwealth. Political parties are normally of limited significance during election campaigns, outcomes of which are largely driven by personal or kinship loyalties. Factional alliances become more important during the post-election contest for the Prime Ministerial portfolio. After elections, MPs habitually travel from outlying constituencies to join ‘camps’ in the capital, Honiara, normally located at the major international hotels. After the April 2024 election, Sogavare’s OUR Party set up their camp at the Cowboy’s Grill, a restaurant in eastern Honiara, while the opposition CARE coalition, linking Wale’s SIDP and Rick Hounipwela’s Democratic Alliance Party, established their rival headquarters at the Heritage Park Hotel close to the town centre.

The April election was the first since the Solomon Islands switched its diplomatic links from Taiwan to China in 2019, and then signed a security deal with Beijing in April 2022. That deal provoked considerable anxiety in Australia, which at the time was in the midst of a federal election campaign. A leaked draft of that security arrangement gives the Chinese navy the right (with the consent of the Solomon Islands Government) to ‘make ship visits’ and gives Chinese police and riot police the ability (at the Solomon Islands’ request) ‘to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects’ . With some election campaign-driven exaggeration, then Australian opposition foreign affairs spokesperson Penny Wong (now Australian foreign minister) at the time called the Solomon Islands-China security deal ‘the worst foreign policy blunder in the Pacific since the end of World War II’ . The Solomon Islands’ relationship with China likewise provoked attention in the United States. In mid-2019, United States Vice-President Mike Pence put considerable pressure on the Solomon Islands to retain its ties with Taiwan. After the 2019 switch, Washington endorsed a SCALE aid program for agriculture on the island of Malaita, where the provincial government remained firmly opposed the diplomatic switch to China. Despite a great recent emphasis on American re-engagement with the region, culminating in President Biden’s September 2022 announcement of a US$810 million package to counter Chinese expansion in the Pacific, the SCALE Program was wound down ahead of the 2024 election.

Figure 1: Incumbents Re-contesting in 2024

Notes: SIDP is Solomon Islands Democratic Party, OUR is Ownership Unity and Responsibility Party, UP is United Party, PF is Peoples First Party, DA is Democratic Alliance Party.

Although the 2019-24 Prime Minister Sogavare signed the China security agreement, he insisted that Australia remained his country’s ‘security partner of choice’. Sogavare defended a wider ‘friends to all, enemies to none’ foreign policy and promised major gains in economic development and trade arising from the new alliance with China. Contrary to numerous Australian media reports, he denied that the security pact would allow a Chinese naval base to be constructed in the Solomon Islands. Over 2022 and 2023, the Australian and Chinese governments competed via donations of equipment, either firearms, vehicles or water cannons, to the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force. Ahead of the April election, Australia renewed its commitment to deliver security assistance via a Solomon Islands Assistance Force (SIAF), a policing arrangement arranged under a bilateral security treaty signed in 2017 which entailed Australian police being deployed to counter riots in the capital in 2019 and 2021. Geo-political rivalries became a major focus of the election campaign, with some opposition MPs promising to jettison the China security deal and restore diplomatic links with Taiwan. Encouraged by Russian and Chinese media commentary, Sogavare claimed that the United States and Australia were seeking to undermine his re-election campaign. In his East Choiseul constituency, which has long been a fairly safe seat, Sogavare faced a major challenge from David Qurusu, winning by only 1,808 votes to Qurusu’s 1,549, a closeness which the outgoing Prime Minister explained by ‘extensive efforts by the United States to influence the outcome’ with the evidence being ‘clear displays of the United States’ flag’. During the post-election period, too, there was a front page media claim in the Solomon Star that US and New Zealand diplomats were aligned with the opposition in an effort to topple the Sogavare government. These allegations were strongly denied by both New Zealand and the United States.

Figure 2: Solomon Islands Log Production & Exports, 2011-2023

Source: Central Bank of the Solomon Islands Quarterly Review.

Cleavages around foreign policy may have animated the political elites, but there is little evidence that they influenced electoral results out in the rural constituencies. Policy issues tend not to be decisive in Melanesian election campaigns, and foreign policy issues even less so. Campaigns instead typically focus on personal loyalties or the extent of patronage, including expenditure of Rural Constituency Development Funds (RCDFs, ie funds disbursed by individual MPs). OUR party incumbents may have fared poorly at the 2024 polls, but Wale’s SIDP – which was critical of the break with Taiwan – also saw 40% of its sitting MPs lose their seats (see Figure 1). OUR Party incumbents did not poll particularly badly on Malaita, despite the provincial government on that island having held out against the switch to China after 2019. One result at the provincial level, which saw simultaneous elections on 17 April 2024, did appear to indicate support for the pro-Taiwan position. The former Premier of Malaita Province, Daniel Suidani, had fought a long-running battle with the national government over 2019-2023, until he was ousted in a national government-sponsored no confidence ballot on the floor of the provincial assembly in February 2023. He was re-elected on 17 April. However, his new Iumi for Change Party (‘You and me for Change’) only secured a single seat at the national level and the constituency-level victor in his broader Fataleka constituency on Malaita is from the ruling OUR Party.

The influence of the China switch on the April 2024 election was indirect. OUR Party campaign rallies around the country were well-financed, particularly for the more prominent candidates such as former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, Party President Jimson Tanagada and East Guadalcanal MP Bradley Tovosia (other OUR incumbents ran much more sparse campaigns). At launches, Sogavare’s speeches typically extolled the virtues of the new China alliance as having delivered sizable developmental gains in road- and bridge-building, and other infrastructure assistance. These claims sat uneasily alongside a sharp contraction in GDP over the years preceding the election. According to both the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, GDP declined by over 8% in 2020-22, with only a weak recovery fuelled by running the Pacific Games in late 2023. For decades, round log exports have been the Solomon Islands’ critical source of foreign exchange, but since 2018 the log export industry has witnessed a steep downturn, largely due to a decline in the Chinese real estate market and the associated building contraction. Whether measured in value or volume terms, log exports were less than half their 2018 levels in 2023 (see Figure 2). Despite high profile grant-funded projects, such as the stadium built by China in central Honiara for the 2023 Pacific Games, Chinese firms have so far been unable to find plentiful opportunities for lucrative concessional loan-financed commercial schemes analogous to those attracting the belt and road initiative projects seen in Southeast Asia or Africa.

Other factors that damaged former Prime Minister Sogavare’s bid for a fifth term included revelations by the US-funded Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) that his expensive real estate deals in Honiara could not have been funded by his prime ministerial salary. During the 2003-17 period, when the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI) was in the country, Sogavare acquired considerable support both in the Honiara political elite and among those poorer predominantly Malaitan town dwellers who inhabit squatter settlements in the capital, as a ‘nationalist’ leader prepared to stand up against what was widely perceived as Australian intrusiveness. Much has changed since. Riots followed Sogavare’s election as Prime Minister in 2019. Further major riots broke out in November 2021, triggered by Malaitan protest over the country’s diplomatic switch from Taiwan to China. During those disturbances, rioters targeted the Prime Minister’s dwelling in eastern Honiara (which was what encouraged him to seek a policing deal with China). Sogavare’s 2023 move to amend the Constitution to give himself an extra seven months in office, on the pretext that elections could not be held simultaneously with the Pacific Games, was also unpopular. In tandem with declining urban popularity, Sogavare became increasingly dependent on his ties to China. In late 2021, the Sogavare-led government survived a ‘no-confidence’ challenge on the floor of parliament, buttressed by support from Beijing.

Numerous court cases typically follow general elections in the Solomon Islands, with that number reaching 25 of the 50 contests following the 2024 polls. Most of these cases allege bribery or treating. Where successful, single-seat by-elections will be held. Matthew Wale, Manele’s rival for the top job, has also contested the legality of the prime ministerial election, claiming that the timeframe for nominations was insufficient. Wale himself was accused of financial irregularities ahead of the 2024 election, through offering to pay rivals not to contest in his Aoke-Langalanga constituency. The OCCRP revealed evidence that together with the Chinese firm Win Win, East Guadalcanal MP Bradley Tovosia had used RCDF money to construct a ‘road to nowhere’ that travelled 20 kilometres into the interior of his constituency, before halting, amidst speculation that the Chinese firm’s motive was to prospect for minerals. One novel allegation of irregularities, ahead of the election, was OUR Party’s criticism of the Solomon Islands Electoral Commission for allegedly seeking to sway candidates against incumbents by use of advertising text messages such as ‘You are never too little to make a CHANGE. The Power is in Your Two Votes. People with Disabilities, Women, Young People, Everyone. April 17 – Make that CHANGE’.

Major scalps at the 2024 election included the defeats of former 2010-11 Prime Minister Danny Philip, two-term East Honiara MP Douglas Ete, and three-term Gao-Bugotu MP Samuel Manetoali. After two terms out of parliament, 2011-14 Prime Minister Gordon Darcy Lilo made a comeback as an MP, but no longer contesting his former Gizo-Kolombangara constituency in the west. Instead, he successfully campaigned for the Central Honiara constituency, correctly calculating that the incumbent would be unable to retain his seat. Three women were elected at the national level (6%), and an additional five (8%) to the provincial assemblies. Turnout across the country was 82.3% of registered voters, slightly below the 86.4% at the 2019 election. In the past, turnout has been lower because voters in the urban centres tended to register twice: once in their place of residence and once in their home districts, although they normally only recorded a single vote (as controlled by the inking of the finger). Ahead of general elections, many Solomon Islanders throng to the Honiara docks to travel to their home areas. At the 2014 election, biometric voter registration was introduced for the first time, which has greatly diminished the extent of duplicate registration. Some duplicate registrations continued thereafter, but biometric voter registration made it easier to identify these.

Independents fared well at the election of 2024, taking eleven of the 50 seats. Yet, historically, so-called ‘independents’ have fared better still, accounting for 21 of the 50 seats at the previous election in 2019 and 32 of the total seats at the 2014 polls. Independents are better described as unaffiliated, or as-yet-unaffiliated MPs, rather than MPs who are ideologically neutral with respect to the platforms of the major parties (which are, in any case, barely distinguishable on most issues). So-called independents are typically, but not always, first-time MPs. They tend to join the established factions shortly after general elections or else to run as shadow candidates ready to step up if a long-serving incumbent falters. The number of so-called ‘independents’ has been influenced by the passage of the 2014 Political Parties Integrity Act, although that law has not noticeably strengthened political parties. Wale’s SIDP fared better than all of the other parties in securing new first-time MPs: seven of its eleven MPs were newcomers, either first-timers or in one case a temporarily absent returning MP. The SIDP did particularly well in the west, sweeping up the three New Georgia seats, and in the extreme eastern Temotu province, where the party obtained two seats. Yet it was the OUR Party that was most able to attract the waverers during the post-election prime ministerial contest, with ten of the eleven independents joining the Cowboy’s Grill camp in eastern Honiara.

In the wake of past general elections, the outcome of the prime ministerial contest has been highly uncertain. In the days running up to those elections, side-switching has typically been common, even to the extent of even changing the coalition in pole position to form a government. By contrast, the camps into which the bulk of the politicians divided themselves in 2024 resembled the pre-election alliances, and there was little change thereafter. Fewer independents strengthened the position of OUR Party at the Cowboy’s Grill and the CARE coalition at the Heritage Park, particularly after Peter Kenilorea’s United Party predictably joined the Heritage Park camp. Peter Kenilorea, son of the country’s first post-independence Prime Minister and later long-serving Speaker of Parliament of the same name, was himself a potential candidate for the prime ministerial portfolio. So too was 2011-14 Prime Minister Gordon Darcy Lilo, who set up a separate camp at the Honiara Hotel, but failed in his effort to persuade the Heritage Park camp to promise him the finance ministry and deputy prime ministership. It was Wale’s name that went forward to the Governor General as the Heritage Park camp’s nominee for the prime ministerial portfolio, raising familiar cries about ‘Malaitan dominance’ in government (since both the Governor General and Matthew Wale are from Malaita, as is Peter Kenilorea). However, even before the submission of those nomination papers it was clear that OUR Party had managed to attract sufficient so-called independents to form the next government.

With Jeremiah Manele now at the helm as Prime Minister, the Solomon Islands is likely to improve its relationship with Australia and other traditional partners, but cabinet remains strongly supportive of the alliance with China. Most of the core ministers are the same as those in the 2014-19 government, although the so-called ‘independent’ MPs have also been accommodated. Manele was a career diplomat and civil servant before he entered politics. In 2014, he was aligned with the opposition. After joining the government, he played an important role after the 2019 polls in brokering the diplomatic switch to China, before becoming Minister of Foreign Affairs. Since becoming Prime Minister, Manele has reaffirmed support for the ‘friends to all, enemies to none’ foreign policy. His election was welcomed by the Global Times, the Chinese government’s mouthpiece, as representing ‘the broad voice of Pacific Islanders seeking to continue mutually beneficial cooperation with China’. Sogavare remains in cabinet as Minister of Finance, although the Deputy Prime Minister portfolio went instead to Bradley Tovosia. As is usual in Melanesian politics, government has initially strengthened since its election. Typically, the opposition benches in Melanesia swell towards the mid-term. Like so many of his predecessors, Manele will face difficulties holding together a fractious governing coalition, particularly given the simultaneously challenging economic and fiscal situation.

The Solomon Islands 2024 election was one in which an incumbent Prime Minister, and his cabinet, staked everything – including their re-election prospects, the likelihood of political stability, and the economic development of their nation – on the new alliance with China. The outcome of that election indicates that the country’s long-run difficulties – political instability, the threat of urban violence and the absence of sufficient economic ventures to absorb the under-employed – have not been addressed and cannot be resolved by shifts in foreign policy alone.

The post The Influence of Geo-Strategic Rivalry on the Solomon Islands April 2024 election appeared first on Periscope.

Pacific Leaders United in Diversity

KAS Australia — Mon, 27 Nov 2023 01:05:33 +0000

#12/23

27 November 2023

The 52nd Pacific Islands Forum 2023 (PIFLM52) was themed “Our Voices, Our Choices, Our Pacific Way: Promote, Partner, Prosper” and comprised two sessions: the Plenary, held on 8 November at the National Auditorium – Te A’re Karioi Nui in Rarotonga, and the Forum Leaders’ Retreat, held on board the Vaka Teariki Moana in Aitutaki on 9 November. The Forum was attended by the leaders of Australia, the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Palau, Samoa, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Tonga, and Tuvalu. New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu were represented at Ministerial level. More precisely, New Zealand was represented by caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni, accompanied by Government-elect representative the Hon Gerry Brownlee; the incoming prime minister and National Party leader, Christopher Luxon, was tied up with coalition negotiations after the country held general elections on 14 October. The Solomon Islands were represented by a delegation led by Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele; Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare was purportedly attending to his duties as Minister for Pacific Games. The Prime Minister Prime Minister of Vanuatu, Charlot Sawai, was reportedly focussing on the country’s response to cyclone Lola, which made landfall on 25 October and has inflicted significant damage on his electorate of Pentecost Island. The absence of three Melanesian leaders was seen by some as a challenge for regional unity amid competition for influence between China and the United States but did not prevent concrete outcomes in the end.

According to the Communique issued at the end of the Forum, the Leaders inter alia endorsed the 2023 to 2030 Implementation Plan (Annex A) for the 2050 Blue Pacific Strategy, which articulates specific goals, outcomes, and regional collective actions across each of the Strategy’s thematic areas, namely:

Political Leadership and Regionalism
People-Centred Development
Peace and Security
Resources and Economic Development
Climate Change and Disasters
Ocean and Environment
Technology and Connectivity

In the view of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “[t]he rollout of this implementation plan so quickly after the development of the initial strategy in 2022 points to a high level of consensus among PIF leaders on the urgency of actualising PIF priorities and in presenting in unison to external partners how to best engage the Pacific”.

The Communique also tells us that climate change remains on the top of the agenda of the Pacific leaders, who not only re-affirmed their commitment to the implementation of the Paris Agreement but also approved the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF) (Annex B), a Pacific-owned and Pacific-led facility to facilitate resilience financing throughout the region. Saudi Arabia pledged USD 50 million to kickstart the facility, which we are told was largely born out of the need for flexible and rapid small to medium-sized social and community grants throughout the Pacific. The Leaders also agreed on the Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobility (Annex C), that is, a Pacific Partnership for Prosperity priority which aligns with the 2050 Strategy as well as the 2018 Boe Declaration on Regional Security. The Framework firmly acknowledges the Forum members’ fundamental priority to stay in place in their ancestral homes, including through land reclamation. It is said to be a global first, aiming to provide practical guidance to governments planning for and managing climate mobility, while also respecting members’ national laws and policies. Following the 2021 Declaration on Preserving Maritime Zones, the Forum leaders adopted the 2023 Declaration-on-Statehood-and-Protections-of-Persons (Annex D) in an endeavour to secure legal certainty of the Blue Pacific in the face of the existential threat of climate change. They noted that the security and full realisation of the Blue Pacific was not only fundamental to securing the rights, entitlements, and interests of all states and peoples of the Blue Pacific, but also to the maintenance of global peace and security.

As far as deep sea mining is concerned, one could say that the Leaders “agreed to disagree” and endorsed the convention of a PIF Talanoa Dialogue on this topic in 2024. Whilst some Pacific Island states (including the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Nauru and Tonga) plan to mine the ocean for high value metals, others oppose deep sea mining (Fiji, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Micronesia, Samoa, New Zealand, and Vanuatu). The Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, Mark Brown, went as far as to offer his guests items of cultural and unique significance to the Cook Islands, such as a traditional tivaevae (quilt) and a traditional Vaka (canoe), holding a Cook Islands nodule. Already last year, the President of Palau, Surangel Whipps Jr, – backed by many international marine experts – started a petition for a 10-year moratorium. At a film screening held in the context of the Forum, President Whipps Jr said that one of his biggest concerns was that the carbon released by the mining could result in the loss of species. He went on to say that the Pacific Islands shared one ocean and that something done in one part could affect all of them. The moratorium, he said, was meant to allow for the proper research to be done and to prevent the destruction of something that could never be brought back. Many larger industrial nations (including Germany, France and Canada) have joined the call for a moratorium.

In line with the Suva Agreement (concluded to reverse the so called “Micronexit”), the Forum leaders formally selected Nauru’s former president Baron Waqa as the next secretary general of the Pacific Islands Forum. This means Waqa would take office once the incumbent Secretary General, Henry Puna, from the Cook Islands, steps down next year. The President of Nauru, David Adeang, walked out of the Plenary meeting when his country’s controversial choice was raised. He and Mr Waqa are said to be linked to an Australian Federal Police corruption probe into the phosphate dealer Getax. The allegation is that the two of them accepted funding from the company. They are also said to have been instrumental in the sacking of the country’s (Australian) judiciary in 2014, and to have restricted media freedom in their country. As a result, critics deem Baron Waqa to be unfit to lead the Forum.

Other matters debated at the Forum included AUKUS (Leaders noted the update provided by Australia, welcomed the transparency of Australia’s efforts and commitment to comply with international law, in particular the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Rarotonga Treaty, and IAEA safeguard agreements), and Fiji’s presentation on the concept of a zone of peace in the Pacific region. In a separate Statement on the Fukushima ALPS-Treated Nuclear Wastewater Issue, Forum leaders re-affirmed their concerns about the matter. Japan already released the third batch of contaminated water in the beginning of the month. In the absence of any alternative action available to them, the Leaders acknowledged the ongoing dialogue with Japan and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and announced further discussions in the next year. The Communique outlines further outcomes the discussion of which would exceed the scope of this Snapshot, so you it is suggested that you refer to the document and below links for further details.

Australia (together with Tuvalu) arguably made the most significant announcement at the sidelines of the Forum. More precisely, the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Tuvaluan counterpart, Kausea Natano, announced that their countries would upgrade their bilateral relations on the basis of the so called “Falepili Union” (a Tuvaluan word for the traditional values of good neighbourliness, care and mutual respect). The Union comprises a bilateral treaty between Tuvalu and Australia, and a commitment articulated in a joint leaders’ statement to uplift our broader bilateral partnership. One of the key elements of the Falepili Union Treaty provides for Australia to arrange for a “special human mobility pathway for citizens of Tuvalu to access Australia which shall enable citizens of Tuvalu to live, study and work in Australia, and to access Australian education, health and key income and family support on arrival” (Article 3(1)). In other words, Australia has agreed to accept climate change refugees from Tuvalu, half of whose capital Funafuti is estimated to be flooded daily by tidal waters by 2050. The deal was struck after Tuvalu approached Australia for assistance and is (at least initially) restricted to 280 Tuvaluan citizens per year to prevent “brain drain”. At this rate, it would take around 40 years for all Tuvaluan citizens to relocate to Australia.

Article 3: Human mobility with dignity

Australia shall arrange for a special human mobility pathway for citizens of Tuvalu to access Australia which shall enable citizens of Tuvalu to:
1. live, study and work in Australia;
1. access Australian education, health, and key income and family support on arrival.
To support the implementation of the pathway, Tuvalu shall ensure that its immigration, passport, citizenship and border controls are robust and meet international standards for integrity and security and are compatible with and accessible to Australia.
Australia shall provide assistance to Tuvalu to enable it to meet its obligations under paragraph 2 of this article.

Further, the Treaty stipulates that “Australia shall, in accordance with its international law obligations, international commitments, domestic processes and capacity, and following a request from Tuvalu [emphasis added], provide assistance to Tuvaluan response to a major natural disaster, public health emergency of international concern [in other words, pandemics], and military aggression against Tuvalu (see Article 4(1)). In return, Tuvalu shall “mutually agree with Australia any partnership, arrangement or engagement with any other State or entity on security and defence-related matters. Such matters include but are not limited to defence, policing, border protection, cyber security and critical infrastructure, including ports, telecommunications and energy infrastructure” (Article 4(4)).

Article 4: Cooperation for security and stability

Australia shall, in accordance with its international law obligations, international commitments, domestic processes and capacity, and following a request from Tuvalu, provide assistance to Tuvalu[i]n (sic) response to:
1. a major natural disaster;
1. a public health emergency of international concern;
1. military aggression against Tuvalu.
The Parties shall enter into an instrument to set out the conditions and timeframes applicable to Australian personnel operating in Tuvalu’s territory.
In addition to the Parties’ rights and freedoms under international law, provided that advance notice is given by Australia, Tuvalu shall provide Australia rights to access, presence within, and overflight of Tuvalu’s territory, if the activities are necessary for the provision of assistance requested by Tuvalu under this agreement.
Tuvalu shall mutually agree with Australia any partnership, arrangement or engagement with any other State or entity on security and defence-related matters. Such matters include but are not limited to defence, policing, border protection, cyber security and critical infrastructure, including ports, telecommunications and energy infrastructure.

Supporters of the Treaty point out that the agreement provides Tuvaluan citizens with a home as the rising sea level renders their own uninhabitable. The Union, they say, would be another step towards a visa-free Pacific region. Others criticise the Treaty for being neocolonialistic, saying that Australia was merely pursuing its own security interests in the region. Tuvalu is of course one of the four remaining Pacific Island states that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan. By having a say in regards to Tuvalu’s external security and defence relations, Australia can in theory prevent the country from entering into such arrangements with China. There was speculation that Kiribati and Nauru – two other low lying Pacific countries – might enter into similar agreements with Australia in the future. Media report that Foreign Minister Penny Wong left the door open for it, suggesting the Falepili Union could serve as a model: “[t]hat’s a matter for those nations but I think what this does signal is how we are prepared to approach our membership of the Pacific family”. Kiribati’s President Taneti Maamau told the media that the agreement would help Australia “look after” Tuvalu’s development needs, and potentially its security needs as well. “It’s an important initiative for Australia to take, and I congratulate Australia on taking it,” he said. When asked if he would be open to a similar pact with Australia, however, he was reportedly non-committal saying “maybe, but we have our own strategies … our own initiatives … and our own way of doing things”. Maamau also said that Australia had no yet approached Kiribati in this regard. His statement (and that of FM Wong) contradicts rumours according to which Australia had approached Kiribati, and that the country was prevented from entering into such an agreement because of prior commitments to China.

In sum, PIFLM52 proved that the Pacific Island states can be “united in diversity” – something they have in common with the European Union, whose motto it is.

The 53^rd PIF Leaders Meeting is scheduled to be held in August in Tonga next year. The 54^th PIF Leaders Meeting is scheduled to be held in the Solomon Islands in 2025.

Pacific Islands Forum: what is it and why does it matter?

Climate change and rising strategic competition among issues facing leaders at region’s most important political gathering

Pacific Islands Forum: what is it and why does it matter? | Pacific Islands Forum | The Guardian

Pacific Islands Forum: four leaders fail to attend as China-US rivalry takes centre stage

The US has been racing to reopen embassies and deepen links with Pacific countries in wake of Solomon Islands security pact with China

Here be nodules: will deep-sea mineral riches divide the Pacific family?

Members of the Pacific Islands Forums are weighing the economic potential of sea floor mining against possible harm to ocean ecosystems

‘Not worth the risk’: Palau, Fiji call for deep-sea mining moratorium

Concerned about the potential impacts of deep-sea mining on ocean biodiversity, the Pacific islands of Palau and Fiji on Monday launched an “alliance” to call for a moratorium of the nascent industry.

No, 11,200 Climate Refugees Aren’t Heading to Australia

Low-lying Tuvalu has reached a deal with its large Pacific neighbor to address the challenge of rising oceans, but it is not planning to pack up and go.

Tuvalu residency and security treaty: what is it and why is Australia doing it?

The deal helps offset criticism from the Pacific about Australian emissions, but it also brings it into the western orbit and away from China

Kiribati president reluctant for climate change resettlement deal with Australia

The president of Kiribati has played down the chances of his country striking a treaty with Australia similar to the landmark pact that Anthony Albanese signed late last week with Tuvalu’s prime minister.

Deal to resettle climate-hit Tuvalu residents shows world ‘what’s at stake’, European officials say

German and EU officials say the treaty between Australia and the Pacific island country should spur global cut to emissions

Australia-Tuvalu deal brings a visa-free Pacific closer – Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre

The Australia-Tuvalu deal is pathbreaking, according to Stephen Howes.

Global pledges begin as leaders endorse new Pacific Resilience Facility

A US$50million (approx. FJ$112.5m) pledge from Saudi Arabia has opened the investor search for a new US$500million Pacific Resilience Fund (PRF) to build resilience against disaster.

Global Implications of the 52nd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting

Leaders from 18 Pacific countries and territories convened at the 52nd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting last week. This CQ discusses main outcomes of the meeting, Australia’s role in the forum, implications for U.S. policymakers, and challenges ahead for the PIF.

Digital dominoes: Australia’s strategic play in the Pacific

Enhancing the region’s digital connectivity goes beyond influence. It’s about sharing prosperity and security, too.

A Pacific “zone of peace” – what will it entail?

An effort is underway to ensure Pacific concepts are not co-opted by geopolitical competition.

Further readings – Samoa Agreement:

Samoa agreement

The Samoa agreement is the overarching framework for EU relations with African, Caribbean and Pacific countries.

samoa-agreement-eu-and-its-member-states-sign-new-partnership-agreement-members-organisation-african_en

On 15 November, the EU and its Member States signed a new Partnership Agreement with the Members of the African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) that will serve as an overarching legal framework for their relations for the next twenty years. This agreement succeeds the Cotonou Agreement and

release-forum-sg-puna-welcomes-milestone-samoa-agreement-signing

16th November 2023, Apia, Samoa– Leaders across Africa, the Caribbean and Pacific were in Apia this week to seal a historic multilateral development and trade partnership with the European Community known as the Samoa Agreement.

71 nations endorse ‘Samoa Agreement’

A total of 71 countries have endorsed and signed the Samoa Agreement as the overarching framework for the European Union (EU) agreement with the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries. The historical official signing ceremony took place on Wednesday evening to formulate the new partnership agre…

Tonga did not sign the Samoa Agreement

“The impact of this, is that Tonga will not be able to access funding from the EU, until the signature is made,” Minister ’Utoikamanu said.

Jamaica to delay signing Samoa Agreement, says Johnson Smith

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Further readings – Pacific Games:

Home | Sol2023 Pacific Games

Keep up to date with the Sol2023 Pacific Games with Media Updates, Venue Information, volunteer jobs and Vacancies

Solomon Islands to delay election as PM tells Australia to ‘get ready’ to fund vote

Manasseh Sogavare pushed for the election to be delayed, saying country could not host election and Pacific Games in the same year

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The post Pacific Leaders United in Diversity appeared first on Periscope.

Speaking Softly & Carrying a Big Stethoscope: Universal Health Care for Pacific Island Nations

KAS Australia — Fri, 22 Sep 2023 05:02:16 +0000

Dr Duke Mataka is Tonga’s sole ophthalmologist and provides specialist eye care services, including to local communities in remote parts of his country. The Kingdom of Tonga has a population of over 100,000 across 45 inhabited islands—scattered over 700,000 square kilometres of ocean. With such a small population spread across such a vast area, many rely on visiting health professionals for everything from primary health care to sight-restoring surgeries.
“Because we don’t know when we’ll be back,” Dr Mataka reflects, “we’re always under pressure to get through all the operations. The doctors have to work on rotation, sometimes into the night, to ensure we see all the people who need our help.”

Far away, in the small regional community of Gawler in South Australia, these gaps in healthcare availability have not gone unnoticed. Dr John Willoughby, also an ophthalmologist, was recently awarded an OAM in recognition of his long-term commitment through a charity he formed called Vision of Islands to bring visiting surgical teams to the people of Tonga and Tuvalu. He is just one of many health professionals from numerous nations who have demonstrated a commitment to help, despite the hurdles of transport and logistics. The Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS) – Pacific Island Program (PIP) has supported visiting medical teams across a range of Pacific nations. At a larger scale, the Pacific Partnership, often spearheaded by the large hospital ship USNS Mercy—has also been a welcome presence when it has visited over the years providing healthcare, amongst other support, to remote Pacific communities.

Valued as these annual or bi-annual, short-term outreach activities are, they do not provide a persistent and predictable medical presence to support the breadth of healthcare needs of Pacific nations’ communities. Statements following Pacific Health Ministers Meetings have highlighted that achieving universal health coverage, even for primary care, remains among the region’s key priorities.
To address this health challenge, it is helpful to consider what measures have worked well to date and to understand the potential to build on success rather than re-inventing the wheel.
When the Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade reported on the delivery and effectiveness of Australia’s bilateral aid to Papua New Guinea (PNG), one program in particular stood out as a more sustained and collaborative provision of medical services and training.
For over a decade, Australia and PNG have partnered with the Youth With A Mission (YWAM) Medical Ships Australia (MSA) program to provide medical support to remote PNG communities in western regions facing geographic and infrastructure hurdles at least as challenging as those experienced elsewhere in the Pacific Islands.
“It was wonderful for me to see, firsthand, the incredible work that YWAM is doing in our rural areas,” PNG’s then Minister for National Planning, the Honourable Charles Abel noted, “I was amazed to see the mother ship concept in action; one week of this vessel operating can saturate a large area with both basic and specialised health services and training.”
Since 2014, YWAM has operated an AUSTAL designed and built commercial catamaran refitted as a registered health facility complete with dental clinic, day procedure unit and laboratory. It can house four patrol tenders and is manned by as many as 130 volunteers from over 20 nations.
Teams deploy onshore via small boats or inland via a chartered helicopter to provide much-needed specialist medical services to remote communities and to triage those needing surgery on the ship. All health professionals involved submit accreditation details to the PNG Medical Board and the MSA program is coordinated with regional authorities and other health programs or providers where they exist. The PNG Health Department funds MSA along with contributions from regional authorities, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and other donors.
The MSA program has had a significant impact. Between 2010 and 2020, over 570,000 patients received care. Local medical workers received training—enabling them to deliver healthcare to their own communities, and medical, nursing and dental students and graduates from the University of Papua New Guinea gained supervised experience. An independent evaluation commissioned by DFAT found that MSA performance exceeded their service delivery targets,
“[The program] is a partnership in the true sense,” said Mr Abel in 2020, “in that it is helping to assist and support and promote what is already contained in our national health plan—and working very much in collaboration with the existing health system.”

PNG’s then Deputy Secretary for Health, Dr Paison Dakulala, commented, “the training element of [MS] is very very important. What that does—especially our health workers, working in remote settings and those difficult settings—it empowers them; it strengthens them…”
During the COVID-19 pandemic, teams of volunteer nurses, midwives, and rural healthcare students were deployed to support local health authorities, with over 62,000 patients given care during the first year of the pandemic.
How can the best of programs such as MSA, Pacific Partnership, Vision of Islands be built on and scaled to work with regional health authorities, local providers such as Dr Mataka and communities across the Pacific Island nations to assess the need, coordinate the response and facilitate the delivery of reliable health care?
Effective collaboration by national and local authorities, existing providers and international partners to assess gaps in services and coordinate additional support could be an outcome of the Pacific Health Ministers Meeting. In practical terms this could be achieved through the Pacific Community (SPC) Public Health Division (PHD) directly, or if necessary, by creating a regional coordination body based on the model of the successful Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA). Like FFA and Pacific Partnerships, a possible Pacific Islands Forum Health Agency (PIFHA) would work with partner stakeholders who wish to contribute to health outcomes in the Pacific. MSA attracts significant numbers of medical professionals as volunteers—more than can be accommodated each year—suggesting that there is scope to scale such a model beyond PNG. Feedback from other volunteer programs such as Vision of Islands is that keeping surgical equipment safe and effective for intermittent use despite periods of transport or storage is one of their biggest challenges and that they would welcome a coordinated provision of enabling infrastructure. The engagement of commercial providers such as ASPEN Medical highlight an increasing role for the private sector, whether funded by PIF governments or partner nations. Some universities and governments have agreements to support MSA with staff and programs such as Pacific Partnerships see salaried medical staff (military and civilian) involved. Government sponsored volunteer programs are also possible—for example a hybrid of Australian Medical Assistance Teams (AUSMAT) and Australian Volunteers. The PIFHA would not only coordinate the efficient employment of this “whole of nation(s)” health workforce to enable a persistent and predictable presence, but could establish a framework for accreditation of health practitioners providing services under this collaborative model.
Collaborations such as the FFA, the Pacific Partnership, the Pacific Quadrilateral Defence Coordination Group (Australia, the United States, New Zealand, and France), and Australia’s OPERATION SOLANIA highlight the willingness of like-minded nations to contribute military and commercial materiel to support the communities of the Pacific Island nations.

In terms of vessels, the United States Navy (USN) already has plans to retire their two aging hospital ships (Mercy and Comfort) and acquire a larger fleet, commencing with the AUSTAL EPF-14 expeditionary ship with enhanced medical facilities followed by the Bethesda Class Expeditionary Medical Ships — capable of providing a more sustained medical service to far-flung regions like the Pacific. An investment by several like-minded nations of an additional EPF-14 configuration ships (or civilian specification equivalents available from AUSTAL) each would ensure sufficient capacity to rotate an agreed number of vessels though the PIFHA program each year. The EPF medical ships, with a common configuration, would become a key enabler for volunteers, commercial and government personnel to maintain a persistent, planned presence, providing Pacific Island communities with training and scheduled health services.
At a time when much discussion concerning the Pacific revolves around great power rivalry, we should recall the words of two well-known leaders. Former Prime Minister of Fiji, Frank Bainimarama noted in 2022 that Fiji’s greatest concern isn’t geopolitics. Former President of the US, Theodore Roosevelt in articulating his “big stick” approach to foreign policy noted that a nation must not just be capable, it must choose to treat other nations with respect.
With these words in mind, why should democratic nations invest in a collaborative effort to address the health concerns of Pacific Island nations? I would argue not primarily from a desire to influence support for a stable rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific, but because we are capable of listening respectfully and providing a response to a critical need identified by our neighbours.

The post Speaking Softly & Carrying a Big Stethoscope: Universal Health Care for Pacific Island Nations appeared first on Periscope.

The Fiji December 2022 Election:The Defeat of Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Government

KAS Australia — Tue, 28 Mar 2023 05:35:30 +0000

The Fiji election of 14 December 2022 was the third held under the 2013 Constitution. It resulted in a narrow victory for the opposition parties, which together obtained 29 of the 55 seats. In the Prime Ministerial vote held on Christmas Eve, People’s Alliance Party leader Sitiveni Rabuka was selected as Prime Minister by 28 votes to 27. The election brought to an end 16 years of semi-authoritarian rule by the military-backed government that assumed office in the wake of the December 2006 coup. Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Party had won the 2014 elections with 59% of the popular vote and the 2018 elections, more narrowly, with 50.02% of the nationwide vote. In December 2022, that party secured 42.6% of the vote, which was enough to make it the largest party in parliament with 26 seats, but not enough to form a government. The December 2006 coup leader and 2007-22 Prime Minister Frank (‘Voreqe’) Bainimarama became Leader of the Opposition.

Fiji is a small Pacific Island country located to the east of Australia. It has a population of around 900,000, the vast majority of whom live on the main island of Vitu Levu. It was a British colony from 1874 to 1970. Under British colonial rule, over 60,000 indentured labourers were brought from the Indian subcontinent to work in the sugar cane fields. By the 1940s, the descendants of those migrants outnumbered the indigenous population. By the 1980s, the two populations were close to parity, owing to a recovery in indigenous fertility rates. By 2007, the Fiji Indian population was down to 36.7% and the indigenous share up to 55.8%, largely due to out-migration by Fiji Indians to Australia, New Zealand or North America. Ethnic affinities have been an important basis for electoral loyalties in the past. For most of the post-independence period, there was one large party that appealed to indigenous Fijians and another large party that appealed to Fiji Indians. This was not the case in December 2022: that election was fought between two multi-ethnic parties or coalitions.

After independence, Fiji experienced three coups: in 1987, 2000 and 2006. The first, in May 1987, was a military coup that came shortly after the election of a largely Fiji Indian backed coalition. On 19 May 2000, a second coup followed the May 1999 election of another mainly Fiji Indian-backed party led by Fiji’s first ever Prime Minister of Indian descent, Mahendra Chaudhry. This time, the Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) was split. The then RFMF Commander, Frank Bainimarama, led a counter coup on 29 May 2000 and abrogated the 1997 Constitution, but he handed over the reins of power to a civilian government in July 2000. On 5 December 2006, Bainimarama overthrew another elected government, but this time that government was one that had been backed at an election held eight months earlier by 80% of indigenous Fijians. Unlike its predecessors, the 2006 coup was initially depicted as a ‘clean-up campaign’ against corruption and as a military takeover designed to bring an end to ethnic discord, but there followed extensive repression of the opposition, media censorship and the abrogation of the constitution in 2009. It was on the basis of an egalitarian, meritocratic and development-oriented agenda that Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Party was able to win the 2014 and 2018 elections. Whereas the ethnic divide was the key cleavage around which parties were configured prior to the 2006 coup, at the elections of 2014, 2018 and 2022 the key cleavage was between the party that assumed office as a result of the 2006 coup (FijiFirst) and those parties opposed to that coup.

The December 2022 election, like those of 2014 and 2018, was conducted using an open list proportional representation system. The entire country was treated as a single constituency with 55 seats and a 5% threshold. The ballot paper featured only numbers, with each number representing a candidate. After the polls, ballots are counted to establish the number of seats for each party using the d’Hondt system. Once the party tallies are known, the seats secured by each party are allotted to its candidates with the highest votes. One consequence is that some candidates may be elected with lower vote tallies than others. This arose in all three of the elections since the passage of the 2013 Constitution. It was explained by a difference in campaign tactics between FijiFirst and the opposition parties and, initially in 2014, by the strong personal popularity of military commander-turned civilian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama. During those campaigns, FijiFirst emphasised Bainimarama’s personal ballot paper number whereas the opposition parties had more candidates with a strong vote at the local level. Whereas FijiFirst used a ‘rock star’ high profile party leader focussed campaign strategy, the opposition parties had a more even distribution of their votes across their candidates. Hence, many FijiFirst candidates were elected on the basis of Bainimarama’s personal vote.

After 2014, numerous electoral amendments were passed that disadvantaged the opposition, including laws to diminish the autonomy of the electoral commission, to expand the authority of the Supervisor of Elections and to require parties to cost their campaign pledges. Another amendment required women to register in the name on their birth certificates, disenfranchising many women who had hitherto been registered using their married names. After the FijiFirst election defeat in December 2022, the Supervisor of Elections, Mohammed Saneem, was suspended ahead of a disciplinary tribunal but he then resigned to avoid the proceedings.

During the 2022 election campaign, FijiFirst echoed its tactics of 2014 and 2018 by appealing for personal votes for its leaders: Bainimarama and his Attorney-General and Minister for the Economy, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum. The latter had served as de facto Prime Minister during the governments of 2014-18 and 2018-22, with Bainimarama playing a more ceremonial role, touring the country to open roads, wharves, bridges and buildings and travelling regularly overseas to attend international events, such as climate change summits. Most of FijiFirst’s ministers re-contested and were re-elected, but most of the other FijiFirst candidates were new. The FijiFirst manifesto defended the incumbent government’s achievements in protecting the country during the Covid-19 pandemic. That pandemic hit the country’s tourism industry particularly badly, with visitor arrivals falling to near to zero over 2020-21. The national airline, Fiji Airways, was driven close to bankruptcy but was bailed out by the government and then rescued by the country’s main pension fund acquiring a major stake in July 2022. By November 2022, visitor arrivals had recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels. In December, FijiFirst again acquired most of its support from Fiji Indian voters and an overwhelming majority among citizens residing in the western part of Viti Levu, Fiji’s largest island. At one campaign rally, Bainimarama told his audience that ‘my party should be in power forever because it will provide unity forever’.

Ahead of the 2022 polls, the opposition was thoroughly reconfigured. A new party, the People’s Alliance Party, was established and able to largely displace what was formerly the largest opposition party, SODELPA (the Social Democratic and Liberal Party). SODELPA was a reincarnation of the party that held office prior to the 2006 coup, when it was led by Laisenia Qarase. After serving a prison sentence for what Amnesty International has described as a politically-motivated corruption conviction, Qarase was prohibited from contesting in 2014. At the 2018 polls, SODELPA was instead led by Sitiveni Rabuka, the 1987 coup leader and 1992-99 Prime Minister. After the 2018 election defeat, a fractious leadership contest within SODELPA led to Rabuka being replaced as party leader by Viliame Gavoka, a former Chief Executive at the Fiji Visitors Bureau. Rabuka responded by resigning both as an MP and SODELPA member and by commencing preparations ahead of the launch of his People’s Alliance Party.

Half of SODELPA’s MPs defected to the People’s Alliance before the 2022 election, including traditional chief of Cakaudrove province, Tui Cakau Ratu Naiqama Lalabalavu and trade union rights and anti-poverty activist Lynda Tabuya. The People’s Alliance was also able to attract numerous high profile new candidates, including Manoa Kamikamica (now one of three deputy prime ministers). SODELPA was left with only 5% of the national vote, as compared to the People’s Alliance Party’s 35.8%. Whereas SODELPA remained an almost entirely indigenous-backed party, the People’s Alliance was able to attract some minority support from within the Fiji Indian community, as seen in the election of Fiji Indian businessman Charan Jeath Singh drawing on a sizable personal vote on the country’s second largest island, Vanua Levu. The People’s Alliance secured a majority of the votes from Vanua Levu and most of the outer islands and, critically, was neck and neck with FijiFirst in the densely populated Central Division, which covers the southeastern part of Viti Levu. When single-member electorates were used (1972-2006), district design discriminated in favour of the sparsely populated rural areas. By now treating the entire country as a single district, Fiji has ended the former bias against the more densely populated urban areas.

Rabuka established a coalition with the National Federation Party (NFP), echoing the close alliance he had forged with that party under the leadership of Jai Ram Reddy in the late 1990s. In the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, the NFP had been a predominantly Fiji Indian-backed party. From the 2014 election onwards, it cultivated a more multi-ethnic appeal. Under the leadership of former economics professor Biman Prasad, and with former military officer and permanent secretary Pio Tikoduadua serving as party president, the party was able to lift its share of the vote from 7.4 in 2018 to 8.9% in 2022, and its number of seats from three to five. The party released no manifesto ahead of the 2018 polls, owing to fears of potentially violating the government’s strict electoral amendments relating to costing manifesto commitments. NFP’s leaders, like those of the People’s Alliance, were regularly brought in for police ‘questioning’ during the campaign. Three of SODELPA’s sitting MPs were unable to contest because they were serving prison sentences in December 2018, in each case for claiming allowances by stating that their main place of residence was their home village while they were residing in the capital, Suva.

Turnout across the whole of Fiji was 67.8% of registered voters, down from the 70.9% in 2018. Use of designated polling stations lowered turnout, as did delaying the election until mid-December, close to Christmas and in the midst of Fiji’s rainy season.

Figure 1: Results of the 14 December 2022 Election

Source: Fijian Elections Office

The results of the December 2022 election left Fiji in a delicately balanced situation. FijiFirst had 26 seats in the 55-member parliament. Together, the People’s Alliance (21) and the National Federation Party (5) also had 26 seats. During the initial provisional ballot count, it looked as if all of the other parties would fall below the 5% threshold (see Figure 1). If so, FijiFirst would have won the election. Yet at the final count, SODELPA narrowly crossed the threshold with 5.1% of the vote, giving it the decisive three seats in parliament. Similar to the People’s Alliance, SODELPA prioritised indigenous rights issues. It was deeply opposed to FijiFirst policies, such as the 2012 abolition of the country’s Great Council of Chiefs, formerly the peak body in the country’s indigenous order. On the other hand, there was much bad blood between SODELPA and the People’s Alliance owing to the rancorous 2020 leadership contest, the defection of so many SODELPA MPs, and the People’s Alliance campaign tactic of insisting that a vote for the smaller parties was a ‘wasted vote’. In addition, SODELPA leader Viliame Gavoka is father-in-law to Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, the FijiFirst General Secretary and right-hand man to Bainimarama, which encouraged many to suspect that family ties might encourage support for a coalition with FijiFirst. Yet at the initial meeting of the SODELPA Management Board to decide whether the party would go into coalition with FijiFirst or with the other opposition parties, the party came down 16:14 in favour of joining the opposition coalition. Joyous celebrations by opposition supporters ensued.

The next day, however, party General Secretary Lenaitasi Duru claimed that the Management Board decision had not been reached in accordance with SODELPA’s constitution. The Supervisor of Elections and the Attorney General agreed. At this precarious juncture, the Police Commissioner, Sitiveni Qiliho, himself a former military officer and strong Bainimarama loyalist, claimed that ‘stoning incidents’ were occurring that were targeting ‘minority groups’ (i.e., Fiji Indians) and called out the army. Many feared that this was being used as a pretext for yet another coup. The precarious security situation was used to place the SODELPA Management Board under duress as they re-convened to again decide on their coalition partner. For the second such meeting, five of those who had voted at the first Management Board meeting were ruled ineligible. Again, FijiFirst and the opposition party leaders initially attended the meeting offering ministerial portfolios, board memberships and other inducements to SODELPA. On 23 December, SODELPA again decided in favour of a coalition with the opposition parties, this time by 13 votes to 12. The Military Commander, Jone Kalouniwai, who had promised in early December to honour the election result, stood by his word. Only a small military deployment was ordered to support the heavily policed re-run of the SODELPA gathering.

After Rabuka’s election as Prime Minister on Christmas Eve by 28 to 27 votes, Bainimarama told the media: ‘this is democracy, this is my legacy: the 2013 Constitution’. Yet the security situation remained fraught. In two FijiFirst press conferences in early January, Bainimarama delivered blistering attacks on the new Government, accusing it of breaching the 2013 Constitution and calling on constitutional office-holders, including the Police Commissioner and Commissioner of Prisons, to refuse appeals for their resignation. Military Commander Jone Kalouniwai issued a statement warning the government against breaching the separation of powers, but his officers remained in the barracks. He also repeatedly appeared alongside government ministers, including both Rabuka and Home Affairs Minister Pio Tikoduadua, so as to reassure the nation that the military was behind the new Government. Appeals were also made by Bainimarama and Sayed-Khaiyum to the President, Ratu Wiliame Katonivere, who had until then been closely aligned with FijiFirst, to step in to pronounce the new Government in breach of the constitution. He refused. On 16 February, Bainimarama delivered a speech in parliament attacking the President and appealing to the rank and file in the military to protect the 2013 Constitution. He was suspended for three years for breaching Standing Orders. If the new Government survives, the December 2022 election will be Fiji’s first ever enduring transition of power since independence. Changes in government in 1987, 2000 and 2006 were each followed by coups, the first within a month, the second a year later and the third after eight months. Fiji is therefore not out of the woods yet. The fact that powerful constitutional office-holders, particularly the President and the Military Commander, have sided with the Rabuka-led government augers well, but some of those in the military continue to defend the 2006 coup as if it were a ‘noble’ act by the RFMF. The 2013 Constitution remains a major issue. It was imposed on the people of Fiji. No elected representatives were responsible for its formulation. It was not passed by way of a referendum. Yet it cannot be amended without the support of 75% of MPs followed by the endorsement of 75% of all registered voters in a referendum – an extraordinarily high threshold. Given continuing military support for the 2013 Constitution, the new Government is well advised to tread cautiously. There is no need for hurry. Nothing in the 2013 Constitution prohibits the initiation of a review process, at the appropriate time. Deliberation is in any case necessary on a suitable replacement, which will require extensive consultation. Until then, the Fiji government is advised to cement its own position, to deal firmly with spoilers of the transition but not to pursue vendettas against all of those who accommodated with the FijiFirst governments. The early signs are promising, but the passage of time will bring fresh challenges.

The post The Fiji December 2022 Election:
The Defeat of Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Government appeared first on Periscope.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA – 2022 General Elections

KAS Australia — Fri, 02 Sep 2022 06:44:21 +0000

Digital Snapshot #17/22

02 September 2022

A potpourri of current affairs topics from Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific brought to you by KAS Australia and the Pacific. The weekly digital snapshot showcases selected media and think tank articles to provide a panorama view and analysis of the debate in these countries.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in these articles do not necessarily reflect KAS Australia’s position. Rather, they have been selected to present an overview of the various topics and perspectives which have been dominating the public and political debate in Australia and the Pacific region.

Papua New Guinea has held general elections from 4 to 22 July 2022.

More than 6 million voters in the country were called upon to select 118 members of parliament from more than 2300 candidates for a term of 5 years. As per The Guardian’s Explainer, Papua New Guinea has a multi-party system with numerous political parties, in which no one party often has a chance of gaining power alone. Parties must work with each other to form coalition governments.

According to the Inter-Parliamentary Union, the Papua & Niugini Union Pati (PANGU), led by Prime Minister James Marape, came first, taking at least 37 seats in the unicameral parliament. The National Congress Party (PNC), led by former Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, came second with 15 seats, followed by the United Resource Party led by Mr William Duma. 2 women were elected to Parliament, up from none in the previous parliament: Rufina Peter from the People’s National Congress (PNC) Party was elected as the governor for Central Province. Kessy Sawang was elected in the Rai Coast open seat. On 7 August, Governor-General Sir Bob Dadae invited PANGU to form a new government. The next day, Parliament convened for the first time. Mr Marape, was unopposedly re-elected as Prime Minister, with Job Pomat elected as Speaker. On 23 August, PM Marape announced a 32-member Cabinet. On the same day, OnePNG published the following cabinet list:

James Marape – Prime Minister & Minister for Planning
John Rosso – Deputy Prime Minister & Minister for Lands Physical Planning & Urbanisation
William Duma – Minister for State Enterprises
Ian Ling Stuckey – Minister for Treasury
Soroi Eoe – Minister for Provincial & Local Level Government Affairs
Rainbo Paita – Minister for Finance & Implementation
Richard Maru – Minister for International Trade & Investment
Justin Tkatchenko – Minister for Foreign Affairs
Don Polye – Minister for Higher Education, Research, Science & Technology & Sports
Solan Mirisim – Minister for Works & Highway
Pila Niningi – Minister for Justice & Attorney-General
Walter Schnaubelt – Minister for Transport & Civil Aviation
Kerenga Kua – Minister for Petroleum & Energy
Jimmy Uguro – Minister for Education
Joe Sungi – Minister for Public Service
Salio Waipo – Minister for Forest
Henry Amuli – Minister for Commerce & Industry
Peter Tsiamalili Jnr – Minister for Internal Security
Dr Lino Tom – Minister for Health
Dr Kobby Bomoreo- Minister for Housing
Jason Peter – Minister for Community Development, Religion & Youth
Timothy Masiu – Minister for Information & Communication Technology
Jelta Wong – Minister for Fisheries & Marine Resource
Win Daki – Minister for Defence
Esi Henry Leonard – Minister for Tourism, Art & Culture
Aiye Tambua – Minister for Agriculture
Sekie Agisa – Minister for Livestock
Francis Maneke – Minister for Oil Palm
Joe Kuli – Minister for Coffee
Bryan Kramer – Minister for Labour & Immigration
Ano Pala – Minister for Mining
Simon Kilepa – Minister for Environment, Conservation & Climate Change
Minister for Bougainville Affairs – to be appointed

The official cabinet list should be available from the PNG Government’s websites once counting has been completed and the outstanding minister has been sworn in.

The 2022 elections were the first to be held after the coronavirus pandemic, which has hit PNG’s economy hard. They were reportedly marred by violence and alleged corruption. Up to 50 people are said to have been killed in election-related violence since May this year, down from up to 200 in the 2017 general elections. Observers from the Commonwealth noted that a large number of names were missing from the electoral roll and recommended that the Government undertake urgent reforms to strengthen voter registration. In response, the Government promised to update the electoral role on the basis of the census scheduled to be held next year.

As The Lowy Institute explains, the new Government is now faced with the difficult task of economic recovery. PM Marape will have to address rapid population growth, inflated living costs, high unemployment, low levels of service delivery, poor health and education standards, bad governance, endemic gender-based violence and the use of weapons in the country. A significant number of young people (‘youth bulge’) purportedly poses both a challenge and an opportunity, as they included vibrant, ambitious and entrepreneurial emerging leaders showing great resilience in the face of adversity. Decent economic prospects, we are told, were buoyed by the resource sector, with opportunities for diversification through agriculture, the creative industries and tourism. Apart from that, it should be noted that PNG due to community resistance and a lack of funding remains one of the least Covid-19 vaccinated countries in the world.

The implementation of the 2019 Bougainville Independence Referendum also remains on the Government’s agenda.

2022 PNG election results: nine findings – Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre

PANGU won 33% of seats, but PNC’s positive swing was larger than PANGU’s – two of nine findings explored by Stephen Howes and co-authors.

James Marape returned as PNG’s prime minister after tense election

Following weeks of voting and, at times, violent political unrest, Papua New Guinea’s incumbent Prime Minister will return to the top job, leading a coalition government.

PNG’s troubled election should be a wake-up call for Australia

Shocking violence has captured headlines. A higher benchmark is needed in support of a free and credible ballot.

Violence in the PNG elections is the result of broken systems that Australia cannot ignore | Miranda Forsyth and Gordon Peake

Unrest has forced us to ask whether PNG’s institutions have been so eroded that people feel they have no option but to take matters into their own hands

PNG’s election a violent event

Bitter experience should have been a warning that elections need to be properly planned and administered.

A Smooth Election? – Papua New Guinea Votes 2022 – Australian Institute of International Affairs

This week, Papua New Guineans began the process of electing their new prime minister. Amid concerns of violence and corruption, local issues have dominated.

Will 2022 be a repeat of the 2017 PNG national elections for women candidates? – Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre

Analysis suggests that in 2022 women are once again likely to struggle to get elected, say Orovu Sepoe, Lesley Clark and Teddy Winn.

PNG elections and the economy: Marape vs O’Neill – Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre

The two front-runners for the top job both have tarnished reputations as economic managers, say Stephen Howes and Kingtau Mambon.

Papua New Guinea election: what’s at stake?

The results will impact not only domestic policy but also the wider Pacific and geopolitical landscape

With elections looming, PNG rushed to create seven new districts

While the opposition worries about gerrymandering, the flaws in the decision are more about the population count.

PNG’s 2022 election takes shape

Parochial issues tend to dominate voter choices. But a pandemic and economy stress could make for restless elections.

Candidates and competition in the 2022 election in Papua New Guinea – Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre

Now that candidate numbers for the 2022 PNG election are out, Terence Wood looks at what’s changed, and what hasn’t, in the electoral race.

The post PAPUA NEW GUINEA – 2022 General Elections appeared first on Periscope.

PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM – Regional Solidarity Restored, For Now

KAS Australia — Fri, 24 Jun 2022 05:54:25 +0000

Digital Snapshot #13/22

24 June 2022

The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may recently have overcome the greatest crisis since its inception.

In 2021, in response to the election of Henry Puna from the Cook Islands as Secretary General (SG) of PIF, the five Micronesian member states announced their withdrawal from the regional forum. They insisted that under a gentlemen’s agreement, the Secretary General should have been chosen from the Micronesian subregion, and demanded that SG Puna step aside for their candidate to take his place (see Digital Snapshot #3/21). One by one, the Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Republic of Nauru and the Republic of Kiribati submitted their formal notices of exit to the PIF Secretariat. Back then, the media labelled their decision “Micronexit”, and experts feared the worst for regional cooperation and security. Subsequent apologies by Fiji’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama and others could not change the Micronesian minds.

In a virtual summit of the Micronesian Presidents in February this year, the Micronesian leaders reportedly discussed reforms of the PIF, in particular its leadership, and agreed to temporarily rescind their withdrawal from the Forum. Back then, media reported that their exit was “on pause”. In the meantime, China seized the opportunity to negotiate a security agreement with the Solomon Islands (see Digital Snapshot #8/22), and later on proposed to various Pacific Island States a regional trade and security deal (Common Development Vision) covering various matters including policing, cybersecurity, trade, fisheries and development aid (see Digital Snapshot 11/22). Whilst the Sino-Solomon Islands Security Deal was ultimately signed, the Pacific Island States decided that China’s vision for their region did not necessarily align with their own vision and that they needed more time to consider it, respectively. The proposal faced opposition, in particular, from the Micronesian PIF members, 3 of which (Palau, FSM and RMI) are independent countries in a Compact of Free Association with the USA, and amongst the few remaining countries that recognise Taiwan. This did, however, not prevent other PIF member states from entering into bilateral cooperation agreements with China in regards to various matters, including health, disaster management and agriculture.

In the beginning of this month, several Pacific leaders reached a last minute deal preventing the Micronesian states from exiting the Forum in the end of June. Brokered by PM Bainimarama, and facilitated by the new Labor Government of Australia, which flew to Suva the Presidents of FSM (David Panuelo) and Palau (Surangel Whipps Jr) as well as a Special Envoy of the RMI (TH John Silk), the proposed reform package provides for SG Puna to remain in office until the end of his term (2024), and for him to be replaced by a Micronesian candidate then. The leaders, including Samoa’s Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa, also agreed to formalise the rotation of the PIF leadership between the Polynesian, Melanesian and Micronesian subregions. Further, there would be a second deputy secretary general position, with each deputy from a different subregion as the SG. In addition, there would be a new PIF office in one of the Micronesian countries, and the Office of the Pacific Oceans Commissioner would be relocated to Micronesia. After the meeting, PM Bainimarama issued a statement emphasizing the importance of dealing with matters in the Pacific way, namely by way of in person meetings and consent (also known as “talanoa”). He went on to say that the agreement represented an important first step towards re-uniting [the] Pacific family: “I am very pleased with the progress that has been made and the recognition shared among my fellow leaders, that our Forum Family is strongest together.” President Panuelo (FSM) said that for the sake of unity in the region it was crucial for the deal be signed quickly. He stressed the importance of tackling climate change, health and maritime matters as well as geopolitics within the region. According to President Whipps Jr (Palau), the success of the meeting in Fiji demonstrated the importance of face-to-face diplomacy. Micronesia’s concern had always been that PIF was not as inclusive as it needed to be. The agreement showed that the Pacific had heard what Micronesia had to say, and was willing to work together to make it stronger.

Australia’s new Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, made a statement according to which it was up to the countries of the region to make choices for their people. She added that the security of the Pacific was the responsibility of the Pacific family, of which Australia was a part. Likewise, New Zealand’s Minister of Defence, Peeni Henare, said on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue that Pacific island nations had the freedom to make their own decisions about cooperation with China, as Beijing sought closer military ties with the strategically important region. He went on to say that New Zealand believed in the sovereignty of those nations, and that it was not in anyone’s interests to try to coerce a certain outcome. [New Zealand’s] job was to support the Pacific Island States, to make sure they make strong decisions for themselves. Already in May, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s said she believed that the Pacific could meet its security needs internally. “On anything related to security arrangements, we are very strongly of the view that we have within the Pacific the means and ability to respond to any security challenges that exist and New Zealand is willing to do that. “It’s not for us to speak on behalf of other Pacific nations but what I can say is, where that need exists, New Zealand stands ready to respond to it.”

The PIF reform package is currently being circulated amongst those PIF member states who were not in attendance of the meeting in Suva, with the request to sign it before the end of the month, ie when the Micronesian exit from PIF would take effect. KAS Australia understands that the reform package would also have to be formally endorsed at the next PIF leaders’ meeting, which is scheduled to be held from 12 to 14 July in Suva, presumably without dialogue partners. The meeting would represent the first time all leaders meet in person since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. PM Mata’afa said it would be an important occasion for leaders to get to know each other. It remains to be seen if China attempts to raise a revised version of the regional trade and security deal in the context of the meeting.

Pacific leaders reach crucial deal to restore political unity, as China’s interest in region accelerates

The agreement, which stops the region’s key diplomatic body, PIF, from splitting, lifts a ‘big dark, dark cloud that has been hanging over the Pacific’

Pacific leaders strike a deal to keep Pacific Islands Forum together

Micronesian leaders abandon demands for the current secretary-general of the Pacific Islands Forum to step down immediately, allowing him to serve out his term until 2024.

New Zealand says Pacific islands can make own decisions on China ties

New Zealand Minister of Defence Peeni Henare said on Saturday that Pacific island nations have the freedom to make their own decisions about cooperation with China, as Beijing seeks closer military ties with the strategically important region.

Beijing is Adopting a Wedge Strategy in the Pacific – Australian Institute of International Affairs

Beijing’s proposed agreement with ten Pacific Island countries faced a setback last week. Now China is looking for a wedge strategy to prevent a hostile alignment from arising, a policy of differentiation that will likely target Fiji and Solomon Islands.

China’s foreign minister tells Pacific leaders ‘don’t be too anxious’ after they reject regional security pact

Several Pacific nations reportedly want to defer action on the draft agreement or have it amended

Jacinda Ardern says New Zealand ‘ready to respond’ to Pacific’s security needs as China seeks deal in region

Prime minister says ‘the Pacific is our home’ as Beijing plans a regional security pact with almost a dozen island nations

Micronesia stays in the Pacific Islands Forum fold – for now

But Australia faces its own test amid tensions over leadership of the regional grouping.

Micronesia’s exit from the Pacific Islands Forum | The Strategist

The slow-motion crash of Micronesia’s break with the Pacific Islands Forum has reached the one-year mark. Back on 8 February 2021, the Micronesia five—the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru and Palau—announced they …

Five countries to abandon Pacific forum over leadership vote

Five Pacific island nations will start withdrawing from the region’s main political forum, according to a joint statement, in the fallout from a fractious leadership vote last week.

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Geopolitical storms brewing in the Pacific Islands

KAS Australia — Fri, 03 Jun 2022 06:57:39 +0000

Digital Snapshot #11/22

03 June 2022

For a region generally omitted from strategic discussions – its name literally means “peaceful in character or intent” – the Pacific Islands have emerged as a key theatre for geopolitical competition in recent weeks, with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi touring the islands in pursuit of a “Common Development Vision” trade and security deal, and new Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong similarly attempting to reset Australian influence within the “Pacific Family”.

The escalation began in March this year when Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare of the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement with China which raised the possibility of a permanent Chinese military presence in that country, after previously switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC in 2019. Despite the energetic efforts of Australian intelligence chiefs, diplomats and ministers to dissuade Mr Sogavare, and the longstanding security arrangements with Australia which have seen several multi-billion-dollar deployments of police and defence personnel during the last two decades, the pact was signed. Crucial assurances have been given to Australia and the US that there would be no Chinese military base, long-term presence, or power projection capability located in the country.

Emboldened by its success – and taking advantage of the Australian federal parliamentary election and subsequent change of government – the Chinese attempted to press their luck with a sweeping 10 nation trade and security deal, encompassing a vast range of topics including policing, cybersecurity, trade, fisheries and development aid. The ABC has reported that Chinese officials poured considerable time and energy into trying to rush the deal through ahead of Mr Wang’s meetings with Pacific foreign ministers in Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and East Timor.

But a combination of factors denied Beijing the emphatic and public diplomatic victory it desired. Firstly, the draft text was leaked to Reuters less than a week before Mr Wang’s meeting with foreign ministers. In a letter to 21 Pacific leaders, President David Panuelo of the Federated States of Micronesia argued that the “pre-determined joint communique” should be rejected because of fears it could spark a new Cold War between China and the West. Secondly, a reluctance of local leaders to be rushed was evident. Samoa’s Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa, for example, was reported saying “We have not made a decision [on the pact] as we did not have enough time to look at it.” Thirdly, the objection was raised that any regional proposals of this kind should be considered through the Pacific Island Forum rather than bilaterally. (Though with PIF containing four Pacific nations that recognise Taiwan, as well as the membership of Australia and New Zealand, it is not considered a likely route for success for Beijing.) This has seen the “Common Development Vision” deal shelved for now, and a watered-down position paper issued in its place.

As mentioned, Australia has conducted a parliamentary election and change of government during this time, with the new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visiting Tokyo for a QUAD meeting with Joe Biden, Fumio Kishida and Narendra Modi, and new Foreign Minister Wong visiting Fiji, Samoa and Tonga in recent days. Ms Wong has sought to reset Australia’s diplomacy and influence in the Pacific Islands with a renewed commitment to the “Pacific Family” and overt demonstrations of respect and listening to regional leaders. But crucially, she is bearing a new and welcome message that Australia will address climate change with a newfound seriousness on behalf of Pacific Island nations which fear rising oceans and intensified storms as existential threats.

New Zealand has also weighed in on the issue from Washington D.C., with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern meeting US President Biden in recent days, and issuing a joint statement warning about the “establishment of a persistent military presence in the Pacific by a state that does not share our values or security interests would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region and pose national-security concerns to both our countries.” A furious response was delivered by the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman: “China urges the US to abandon its Cold War mentality and ideological bias, stop interfering in China’s internal affairs and stop slandering and discrediting China.” Concerns have been expressed that New Zealand may yet suffer similar unofficial trade sanctions from China as Australia has in recent years.

So, what happens next? While the Chinese have suffered an embarrassing setback by failing to observe the norms of Pacific Island diplomatic practice, analysts agree that regions leaders have not delivered a permanent refusal, and Beijing can be expected to continue to press for similar security and economic deals in the region – and perhaps enhance its offering – in the months ahead. The next PIF leaders meeting in Fiji in July will be closely watched. Moreover, it remains to be seen whether the new Labor government’s seriousness about climate change – and Ms Wong’s energetic and respectful style – will deliver Australia the influence among the leaders of the Pacific Islands that it requires to shape security outcomes in this increasingly contested environment.

‘Threatens regional stability’: Micronesia pushes back on China’s attempt to ink Pacific-wide cooperation agreement

China will seek a region-wide deal with almost a dozen Pacific islands, covering policing, security and data communications cooperation.

China wants 10 Pacific countries to sign up to a sweeping new agreement. But it won’t be easy

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Pacific Island counterparts today in Suva for a crucial virtual meeting that could have big ramifications for Australia and the whole region.

‘When it was leaked, it was dead’: Here’s why China’s Pacific deal fell over

China talks a lot about consensus, but has done very little to seek it in the Pacific, writes foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic.

Beijing puts more Pacific countries offside as Penny Wong tours region

Not even New Zealand has escaped China’s threats.

‘We need to work together like never before’: Wong races back to the Pacific

Foreign Minister Penny Wong will fly into Samoa and Tonga just days after Beijing’s top envoy signed deals with the island nations.

Furious China turns on New Zealand

China has blasted New Zealand after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern released a joint statement with Washington on “shared concerns” about Beijing’s influence in the Pacific.

Australia’s policing relationships a vital asset as China spruiks authoritarianism in the Pacific | The Strategist

While many in Canberra will view the failure of the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to secure a regional Pacific agreement as a relief, Australia’s new government will have to deal with a steadily increasing number …

Australia’s allies and partners can help counter China in the South Pacific | The Strategist

In the recent statement from the Quad leaders’ meeting in Tokyo, the Pacific islands feature prominently. Each of the Quad members of Australia, India, Japan and the US have their own unique track records and …

Labor should create a “Regional Carbon Bank” for ASEAN and the Pacific

An urgent demand for clean electricity infrastructure requires needs a dedicated, multilateral agency in support.

Competing with China in the Pacific will backfire

Co-operation, not competition, provides the best chance for Australia to enhance ties with Pacific Island countries.

Don’t saddle Pacific Islands with disaster debt

It would be immoral for high-emitting countries to put an extra burden on nations suffering more extreme weather events.

Resetting Australia’s relationship with the Pacific – three ideas

Listen, for a start. Getting down to granular, person-to-person engagement is needed for effective regional diplomacy.

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TONGA – General Elections

KAS Australia — Tue, 23 Nov 2021 02:00:31 +0000

Digital Snapshot #26/21

23 November 2021

____

The Kingdom of Tonga held general elections on 18 November 2021.

Tonga – a constitutional monarchy – has a unicameral Parliament (Legislative Assembly) (Fale Alea) with 26 seats. 17 seats are reserved for democratically elected representatives; 9 seats are chosen by the noble families amongst themselves. This year, more than 60,000 registered voters were called upon to elect their representatives from 72 candidates, including 12 women. Voters must be aged 21 or over and be in Tonga to be eligible to vote. This means that the large Tongan diaspora (an estimated 120,000 people compared to an estimated population of 106,000 in Tonga) was unable to vote. While officials argue that the country was “not yet ready for it”; supporters (of postal voting) say the government sought to avoid interference from abroad. The number of candidates was lower than in the previous election, possibly because citizens were unable to return to Tonga in time to complete 3 months of residence required for them to be eligible to stand for the election. The voter turnout declined from a high of 91% in 2010 down to 62% in this election. Some voters may have erroneously assumed that they were automatically enrolled if they held a national identification card.

The elections were the fourth elections since the introduction of reforms that removed most of the King’s executive powers, created 8 additional seats for people’s representatives and provided for the prime minister to be elected by his peers. They were the first elections held since the death of former long term Prime Minister Akilisi Pohiva from the Paati Temokalati ‘Otumotu Anga’ofa (PTOA) (Tongan acronym for “Democratic Party of the Friendly Islands”). The name “Friendly Islands” goes back to Captain James Cook who visited the archipelago in the 1770s. Following Akilisi Pohiva’s death, the Hon. Pohiva Tu’i’onetoa (parliament.gov.to) from the Paati ‘a e Kakai ʻo Tonga (PKT) (“Tonga People’s Party Inc”) became Prime Minister with the support of independent MPs, former members of the PTOA and the nobles. Since then, we are told, polarisation is on the rise between those who favour a more democratic system and those who would like to retain the monarchy. And, the government has been caught up in political infighting, including accusations of conflicts of interest, nepotism, and misappropriation. In the end of 2020, PTOA leader Semisi Sika – backed by Deputy PM Sione Vuna Fa’otusia – brought a non-confidence motion against PM Tu’i’onetoa. Whilst the Prime Minister defeated the motion, one of his closest cabinet ministers was sentenced for corruption. The election campaign was affected by restrictions imposed after Tonga recorded its first coronavirus case – a traveller from New Zealand with a weak positive result – in the run up to the election.

According to the preliminary elections results, Tonga has elected an all-male parliament, including 9 new people’s representatives and 3 new nobles’ representatives. The only incumbent female MP, Hon. Losaline Ma’asi (parliament.gov.to), 1 of only 6 women who were elected to parliament since the introduction of universal suffrage for women in 1951, did not make it for a second term.

Prime Minister and PKT leader Pohiva Tu’i’onetoa retained his constituency. In his quest to form government and to be re-elected prime minister, he may reportedly face competition by Siaosi Sovaleni, the former minister for education. Mr Sovaleni obtained 83% of the votes, that is, the highest by any candidate in this election. A third term MP and seasoned politician, he is described as the emerging leader of a group of newly elected people’s representatives, including Tatafu Moeaki, Sevenitini Toumo’ua and Sangster Saulala. According to researchers, this group could form the new government if they sided with the nobles’ representatives.

Media report that the Hon. Siaosi Pohiva (parliament.gov.to), son of Tonga’s former prime minister Akilisi Pohiva, was defeated by Tevita Puloka, a businessman and close relative of King Tupou VI. Likewise, the Hon. Mateni Tapueluelu (parliament.gov.to), Akilisi’s son-in-law, is reported to have lost his seat to Tatafu Moeaki, the minister for economic development in the last parliament. Akilisi’s former deputy prime minister, the Hon. Semisi Sika (parliament.gov.to), we are told, was also “rejected” by the voters. This development is said to bring to an end Akilisi’s political legacy, and to relegate PTOA to the opposition, unless the party aligns itself with the aforementioned group of newly elected people’s representatives.

The 33 noble title holders selected nine nobles’ representatives, including the newly elect Lord Vaea, Lord Fohe and Lord Fotofili. 2 of them are replacing nobles who were out of the country for medical reasons. Usually acting as a unified bloc, the nobles’ representatives are anticipated to play a pivotal role in the formation of government again.

Tonga currently faces 3 main challenges, namely the ongoing pandemic, illicit drugs and corruption. The country’s external borders remain closed and may not be re-opened before 2022, meaning there are no tourists and many Tongans who are unable to return. So far under 40 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated (Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations – Statistics and Research – Our World in Data, 15 November). As per the Director of the Tongan Women and Children Crisis Centre, Ofa Guttenbeil-Likiliki, Tonga is no longer just a transit point for traffickers taking their products from South America to Australia or New Zealand, but has become its own small market. In her view, “… there’s a real urgency for whoever the new government is to take some concrete measures and ensure that we really address this issue.” Turning to the lack of female representation in Tongan politics, she said the “system needs to change, and parliamentarians need to be willing to use special measures to help increase the number of women in politics”. Similarly, it seems that the new government will have to act on corruption. The use of so called “constituency development funds” may also be on the agenda.

The final election results are scheduled to be announced on 2 December. The nomination of candidates and election of the new prime minister is expected by Christmas.

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Tonga elects all-male parliament with nine new People’s Reps

Nuku’alofa, Tonga: Tonga elected an all-male parliament today, with nine new faces coming into 17 People’s Representative seats. No women were returned or elected. The Prime Minister, Hon. Rev. Dr Pohiva Tu’i’onetoa retained his Tongatapu 10 constituency. Eight Cabinet Ministers, including two Noble…

All change in Tonga | Blog from the Development Policy Centre

No women elected in Tonga: time to change the story – Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre

No female candidates in yesterday’s election in Tonga were successful and ’Ofa-Ki-Levuka Guttenbeil-Likiliki says it is time for legislative action.

Corruption, Covid-19 in spotlight as Tonga votes | The Guardian Nigeria News – Nigeria and World News

Tongans headed to the polls Thursday with corruption and the recent arrival of a single case of Covid-19 top of the agenda for voters in the tiny South Pacific kingdom.

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While climate change and COVID-19 have dominated the news cycle, Tonga’s battle with corruption and drug use are also front of mind for voters as they head to the polls.

Tonga’s election is today, but thousands of citizens in Australia can’t vote | PINA

Tonga heads to the polls today for its general election, but citizens living abroad, including in Australia, won’t be casting their vote.

Polls in Tonga open for 2021 election

About 60,000 Tongan voters are able to vote in a new government today.

Challenges for Tonga as election looms – Policy Forum

As Tongans lose faith in the major parties, the country’s election will likely see a rise in new independent members of parliament, Kalafi Moala writes. As Tongans lose faith in the major parties, the country’s election will likely see a rise in new independent members of parliament, Kalafi Moala wr…

Health State of Emergency renewed for another month

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Tongan reserve bank dampens cryptocurrency talk

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Nuku’alofa, Tonga – It is the most well-known political party in the Kingdom of Tonga. And for many years, it was the only political grouping of any significance. Its name PTOA comes from the Tongan acronym of “Democratic Party of the Friendly Islands” (Paati Temokalati ’Otumotu Anga’ofa).

Tongan monarch urges people to vote wisely in upcoming general election

After a week-long lockdown on Tonga’s main island, the Kingdom is preparing for their general election scheduled for November 18th. 73 candidates are vying t…

Tonga fulfills another commitment to the Paris Agreement

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Lord Tangi is interim Speaker of the House

Nuku’alofa – November 22, 2021: 3.30pm (Parliament): His Majesty King Tupou VI has appointed Rt. Hon. Lord Tangi as the Interim Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Tonga, effective from Saturday, November 20. In his role as Interim Speaker of Parliament, Lord Tangi will preside and lead the cons…

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FIJI – New Head of State (President)

KAS Australia — Fri, 12 Nov 2021 05:47:26 +0000

Digital Snapshot #24/21

12 November 2021

____

The Republic of Fiji has elected a new head of state.

The current Head of State’s, His Excellency Major-General (Ret’d) Jioji Konusi Konrote, term comes to an end this month after he served the maximum of 2 consecutive terms provided for under the 2013 Constitution of the Republic of Fiji – Laws of Fiji. President Konrote was the first non-iTaukei president to be elected by Parliament. Earlier presidents were elected by the Great Council of Chiefs, a constitutional body abolished (turned into an aristocratic body with no powers) in 2012 by former military dictator turned prime minister Frank Bainimarama. The election of Ratu Wiliame Katonivere is said to show the respect that people still have for the chiefly system.

Under the Constitution, whenever a vacancy arises in the Office of the President, the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition are called upon to nominate one name each to the Speaker who shall put both the names to the floor of Parliament for voting by the members of Parliament. Prime Minister Bainimarama’s ruling Fiji First Party nominated Ratu Wiliame Katonivere, who was supported by 28 members of parliament. The Opposition nominee HON. RO TEIMUMU KEPA – Parliament of the Republic of Fiji from the Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA) garnered 23 votes.

The nominations were criticised for being unconstitutional. As former prime minister and Fiji Labour Party leader Mahendra Chaudhry pointed out “… the Constitution disqualifie[s] anyone who is a member, or holder of any office in any political party from being a candidate for the Office of the President. I, therefore, consider both nominees whose names were proposed in Parliament … to be disqualified from being proposed as candidates. Both the nominees are disqualified within the spirit and intent of the Constitution. The Office of the President is supposed to be apolitical, divorced from any political party affiliation.” He went on to explain that the President-elect was the registered President of the Fiji First Party, at least there was no record of his resignation available, and that his contender was a Member of Parliament for the Opposition.”

SODELPA Leader Viliame Gavoka countered the Labour Leader’s allegation, saying he believe[d] that the opposition acted within the law. In support of his view, he pointed out that under the Constitution, a person holding a public office is not required to resign from that office before accepting nomination for President. Instead, the appointment of the person as the president had the effect of terminating his or her service in that office. He went on to say that the outgoing President was also a parliamentarian at the time he was nominated by his party to stand for this position, thus setting a precedent for the current election.

Unity Fiji Party leader Savenaca Narube said PM Bainimarama had the prerogative to nominate whoever he thought should be President, adding it was important for the President-elect to maintain the independence of his high office. “I think we should all support the new President in his role of leading Fiji and I certainly wish him well in his role and hope that he’ll bring the independence of that position that is still required and particularly the independence of seeking legal advice from independent legal sources and not rely entirely on the government legal advice.”

Former prime minister and People’s Alliance Party leader Sitiveni Rabuka lauded the appointment of the Mr Katonivere, saying the move was “a big turnaround from when Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama had told the Great Council of Chiefs to go drink homebrew under the mango tree”. He said the Government had now gone back to the descendants of the signatories to the 1874 Deed of Cession, and that both presidential nominees signified the respect people still had for Fiji’s chiefly system.

So who is Ratu Wiliame Katonivere?

Telling from media reports, he was born on 20 April 1967 (54 years) as the youngest of 7 siblings. He was installed Tui Macuata in 2013 following the passing of his older brother Ratu Aisea Katonivere. He will be the first chief from this Province to become the head of state, and the youngest president ever. We are also told that he is the World Wide Fund (WWF) for Nature Pacific’s Great Sea Reef Community Champion and was scheduled to speak during the WWF Pacific side event at COP26 in Glasgow. Following his nomination and election as the future head of state, his address was re-scheduled to be recorded and broadcast by video presentation. According to Radio New Zealand, Prime Minister Bainimarama described the President-elect as one of the fiercest defenders of the ocean and of the right of Fiji’s future generations to live in a clean, safe and natural environment. “As the traditional leader of Macuata, he has served as a steward of our Great Sea Reef, the third largest barrier reef in the world.”

Following his election, Mr Katonivere said that he “never dreamt of it”. As President, he will perform ceremonial functions and responsibilities as the Commander-in-Chief of Fiji’s Military Forces.

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Fiji Labour Party

Parties – Parliament of the Republic of Fiji

FIJI FIRST PARTY

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SAMOA – A FAST End to an Era of Political Dominance?

KAS Australia — Mon, 07 Jun 2021 06:40:08 +0000

Digital Snapshot #16/21

07 June 2021

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In Samoa, events have unfolded thick and fast since the general election held on 9 April. In order to understand them, some basic details are needed.

Background

The Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) has been in power since 1982, and the former prime minister has ruled the country since 1998.
Samoa’s Constitution provides for a minimum of 10% women in parliament. This quota was introduced when the total number of seats was 50; it was since raised to 51.
The Constitution requires the first sitting of parliament to take place within 45 days of the general election.
In Samoa, the role of head of state is similar to the role of Queen Elizabeth II and her Governor-General in New Zealand, and meant to be ceremonial.
Samoa does not have a standing military force but can request military support from New Zealand.
Samoa is a deeply Christian country.

Timeline

12 April The preliminary election result suggests a tie between the ruling HRPP (25 seats) lead by the former prime minister, Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi, and the newly founded Faʻatuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (Faith in one true God) (FAST) Party (25 seats) led by HRRP’s former deputy leader Fiame Naomi Mata’afa.

16 April The official election result confirms the preliminary election result, meaning the only independent candidate, Tuala Tevaga Iosefo Ponifasio, becomes a kingmaker. Five women are elected to parliament, equaling 9.8% of the total number of seats.

20 April The Electoral Commission allocates an extra seat in parliament to the female candidate who came closest to winning an electoral seat (Aliimalemanu Alofa Tuu’au from the HRPP).

21 April The independent candidate announces that he will side with the FAST Party, after HRPP’s leader did not give in to his call for resignation.

22 April The FAST Party challenges the appointment of an additional woman to parliament, arguing the constitutional requirement of five women was met.

4 May The Head of State, O le Ao o le Malo, on the advice of the caretaker prime minister, calls for a second election to end the deadlock. The FAST Party challenges his call for a second election in the Supreme Court.

7 May The caretaker prime minister claims to have been appointed by God to lead the country, and that the judiciary has not authority over his appointment.

14/17 May The Supreme Court hears the challenge against the Head of State’s call for a second election and the challenge against the additional woman in parliament, respectively.

17 May The Supreme Court unanimously holds that the Electoral Commission’s decision on an additional seat was unconstitutional. The Court also finds that the Head of State has no constitutional power to call for a second election, and confirms that parliament must convene within 45 days from the election.

18 May The FAST Party requests the Head of State to convene parliament, a request to which the Head of State consents the next day.

19 May HRPP challenges the Supreme Court’s decisions on the second election and the additional woman in parliament, and advises the Head of State not to convene parliament.

21 May The Court of Appeal rejects a stay on the voiding of the appointment of an additional woman to parliament. The Head of State calls for parliament to convene on 24 May.

22 May The Head of State suspends parliament until such time as to be announced and for reasons that he will make known in due course.

23 May The Supreme Court meets urgently in a rare Sunday session and overrules the suspension of parliament.

24 May Samoa’s first female prime minister and her cabinet are sworn into office in a tent, after being locked out of parliament by the Speaker, Leaupepe Toleafoa Fa’afisi, a member of HRPP.

27 May The Attorney General, Savalenoa Mareva Betham-Annandale, seeks court orders declaring the FAST Party’s swearing in as unconstitutional and unlawful, and suspending the legal effect of the ceremony. The former prime minister accuses the Supreme Court of treason, claiming the Chief Justice was related to the FAST Party leader and the Party co-founder and deputy leader, La’auli Leuatea Polataivao Schmidt. The Attorney General reportedly says: “All four cases between FAST and the Government all went against the Government and favoured FAST … There is now substantive evidence before our office that is questioning the appearance of impartiality and integrity of the judiciary presiding over this matter.”

1 June Samoa celebrates its 59^th Independence Day. Women march in support of the appointment of a sixth woman to parliament.

2 June The Court of Appeal upholds the Supreme Court decision against the appointment of a sixth women in parliament on the ground that a decision on the appointment of additional women could not be determined until after the electoral petitions and the by-elections are complete. According to FAST Party lawyer Taulapapa Brenda Heather-Latu, however, the Court also ruled that six women would be the correct number under the Constitution.

4 June Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi and Fiame Naomi Mata’afa meet to negotiate the transition to a new government.

International responses

The events in Samoa have triggered various international responses. The United Nations Human Rights Council, for example, expressed its concern over the challenges to the rule of law, emphasizing the key role of an independent judiciary, and urged Samoa to respect and to protect democratic institutions and the rule of law. The European Union reaffirmed its longstanding partnership with Samoa, calling on all parties involved to respect the principles of democracy, the separation of powers and the rule of law, and to agree through dialogue on a solution reflecting the democratic choice of the people of Samoa. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern called for all parties to continue to uphold the rule of law and to demonstrate respect for the democratic process. Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne noted that the outcome of the election was still being contested in the courts and that Australia would respect [the outcome of] that process. The Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum encouraged all parties to pursue peaceful means to resolve their difficulties but refrained from referring to the prime minister-elect as Samoa’s new prime minister. The President of the Federated States of Micronesia, David Panuelo, quickly announced his country’s formal recognition of Fiame Naomi Mata’afa as the newly elected prime minister saying that “Australia and New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands Forum for that matter, all have important economic and cultural ties with Samoa [but] I can disagree with them for being silent for now.”

Comments

The Lowy Institute considers a “fast end to an era of political dominance in Samoa”. The Sydney Morning Herald reads: “Boys’ Club: Samoa’s Crisis Casts Shadow Over Gender Equality in Pacific Politics.” The Conversation comments: “Samoa is a microcosm of […] the struggles between democracy and […] autocratic political regimes […]. Samoa moved closer to China under Tuilaepa but that may now be reversed under Fiame.”

There are various petitions pending before the courts. Depending on their outcome, by-elections may be required which, in turn, could require the appointment of one – or more – additional women, or remove such a need. Samoa’s former prime minister and the newly elected prime minister are scheduled to meet again today.

Samoa: Meeting of divided leaders ‘only the beginning’

Samoa’s caretaker Prime Minister and Prime Minister-elect met are set to meet again on Monday following on from Thursday afternoon’s secretly-held negotiations.

Samoa election crisis: Win for Fast party as court rejects appeal over extra seat – NZ Herald

The court’s decision brings the newcomer Fast party one step closer to assuming power.

Pacific States Watch Samoa’s Political Turmoil Carefully, Quietly

Samoa’s neighbors have mostly fallen short on backing the new democratically elected prime minister amid a “bloodless coup.”

Women’s Leadership, Gender Quotas, and the Constitutional Crisis in Samoa – Australian Institute of International Affairs

Samoa has elected its first woman prime minister. Now an ongoing constitutional crisis, ironically centred around competing interpretations of Samoa’s parliamentary gender quota provisions, is preventing her from taking power.

Samoa election crisis: What you need to know – NZ Herald

Samoa has been struggling with a constitutional crisis – here’s what is happening.

Samoan democracy hangs in the balance as a constitutional arm wrestle plays out — with the world watching

Samoa’s constitutional crisis has caught the world’s attention, but diplomatic rhetoric may not be enough to support the country’s democratically elected government.

‘Boys’ club’: Samoa’s crisis casts shadow over gender equality in Pacific politics

The country’s gender quota rules are under fire after a tight election and constitutional crisis stopped the elected female PM taking government.

Samoa to shelve China-backed port project under new leader

Samoa’s expected new prime minister has pledged to shelve a $US100 million ($NZ139m) Beijing-backed port development, calling the project excessive for the small Pacific island.

Samoa is experiencing a bloodless coup. The Pacific’s most stable democracy is in trouble | Fiona Ey

The government’s actions after last month’s elections call democracy into question and sets a dangerous precedent for developing nations

A fast end to an era of political dominance in Samoa

The Human Rights Protection Party has been in power almost continuously for nearly 40 years. Perhaps no longer.

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